GLIAG Golden Lane Investments Advisory Group
GLIAG-DASH-SUR-REF-2026 · Rev 27 Sensitivity Engine · GCAA Transfer Pricing & Tolling · 5 July 2026

Suriname Modular Refinery — Sensitivity Engine

Move the Brent slider or change the transfer-pricing scenario. All financial outputs recompute live from the same engine that produced GLIAG-BA-SUR-REF-2026 §5.4 and Financial Model Rev 27. Base case: B2 · GCAA −$2/bbl.

70USD / bbl
Range $45–$120/bbl · piecewise-linear GRM curve
B2 anchored to OECD arm's-length + 12-month rolling quality-differential benchmark
DSCR COVENANT BREACH. Scenario C tolling fee compresses cash flow below the 1.30× floor. Standby facilities (DSRA · 20% equity cure · standby LC) required to sustain debt service.
EBITDA / yr
104.8USD M
Gross GRM $14.0 + $2 GCAA uplift
DSCR
3.06×
HEADROOM
Net GRM
16.0USD / bbl
Gross $14.0 + $2 GCAA uplift
Headroom vs floor
+135%
Floor DSCR 1.30× · EBITDA $44.5M

EBITDA vs Brent — five scenarios

The B2 base case (gold) sits between B1 (conservative) and B3 (upside). Scenario C (tolling) collapses to breach territory below Brent $85.

DSCR grid — Brent × scenario

Live cells; the recommended base case B2 is highlighted. Red cells indicate breach of the 1.30× covenant floor.
Brent A · Full B1 · −$1 B2 · −$2 (rec) B3 · −$3 C · +$8 tolling

Assumptions & sources

Throughput
8.059 M bbl / yr (22,080 BPSD × 365)
Opex
$24.1 M / yr
Debt service
$34.2 M / yr (18-yr, 5.5%)
Senior debt
$385 M @ 5.5% × 18 yr
DSRA
6 months
Equity cure
20% cap
GRM anchors
Piecewise TREND $45→$8 · $120→$22
Covenant floor
DSCR 1.30× (EBITDA $44.5 M)

Source: OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines · GCAA arm's-length methodology · IFC Performance Standards · MIGA political-risk cover · GLIAG Bankability Analysis §5.4 · Financial Model Rev 27.